Space Stuff and Launch Info

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The first SLS rocket should roll out and to the launch pad in a few hours (nominally 21:00 UTC, that's in 4 hours). The process itself will take several hours, too. The same crawler also transported the Saturn V rockets ~50 years ago.
After arrival at the launch pad NASA will prepare a wet dress rehearsal - simulate all aspects of the launch until the point where the engines would be ignited, then abort. The launch won't happen before May, and June or later looks more likely.

How to watch (make sure to not miss any second!):


or
https://www.space.com/artemis-1-moon-megarocket-rollout-webcast

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Astra's most recent launch was successful (now 2 out of 6, or 2 out of 7 if we include a launch pad accident). Let's hope they solved all the initial issues and can go to routine flights. The next launch is planned for April or May.

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SpaceX wanted to launch once per week this year. So far they are on track. 11 weeks in, 10 rockets launched and another one on the launch pad for a Saturday launch. That launch will see a booster make its 12th flight, a reuse record.

 

[anorlunda]

We have a live broadcast of the crawler rollout down here. I watched for a while, but a video of paint drying progresses faster.

 

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Russia launched a new crew to the ISS. The color scheme of their outfits is remarkable. It was likely selected months in advance, but there is no way they didn't see the connection to Ukraine:

 

[berkeman]

The color scheme of their outfits is remarkable. It was likely selected months in advance, but there is no way they didn't see the connection to Ukraine:

Wow. So Putin is not happy right now about this?

 

[hutchphd]

NASA feed:


Thats pretty interesting

 

[berkeman]

Wow, nice. Thanks. BTW, why does the Soyuz vehicle need to deploy solar panels for such a short rendezvous trip?

 

[Oldman too]

Wow, nice. Thanks. BTW, why does the Soyuz vehicle need to deploy solar panels for such a short rendezvous trip?

Hi, I'll be a bit fishing up citations on that question, it's not a mainstream search parameter so wish me luck.
There are at least two reasons that I'm aware of. First reason is the ISS will tap into the power produced by the Soyuz panels to supplement battery charging etc. while its docked. The 2nd reason is that they occasionally use the Soyuz for boosting the ISS orbit as needed and it's probably considered "good poker" to keep the craft ready to go in case of emergencies. They will also reenter the spacecraft if a "debris situation" threatens the ISS, the spacecraft having much better shielding than ISS.

There are likely other reasons that I haven't heard but the answers I've given were mentioned to me by a fellow who works at ISS mission control in Houston.
Cheers, Scott

 

[sophiecentaur]

A fascinating docking video. It is amazing that they seemed to spend so much time fooling around with bits of cord and straps to secure the hatch open. The sort of procedure that happens all the time on a sailing boat to tidy up spars, lines and sails. They did seem to be making a bit of a meal about doing that stuff; no waves, wind or rain to distract them and I'm sure they will have practiced a lot. The problem of where is 'down'. is something you frequently get below decks in a choppy sea.
It's good to see that knots and string still have a part to play up there.

 

[Oldman too]

NASA feed:


Thats pretty interesting

Interesting indeed, the color scheme seems to be somewhat controversial.
https://futurism.com/the-byte/russian-cosmonauts-iss-ukraine

 

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NASA to Discuss Artemis Strategy for Astronaut Moon Landers
Wednesday 3:30 pm EDT, that's in 11.5 hours.

The panel of four doesn't include anyone from SpaceX, the company chosen to fly the first of these missions. Maybe they'll focus on the long-term strategy and discuss how to proceed after the first landing.

 

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NASA Provides Update to Astronaut Moon Lander Plans Under Artemis
NASA uses a (previously unknown?) option in the existing contract to buy another crewed Moon landing from SpaceX. The second crew mission should be ready for "sustainable missions" (can't be that sustainable with a $4 billion per launch SLS...). NASA had already mentioned that the proposal for the first mission won't need major changes to achieve this.

In parallel they are trying to find a second lander to have more competition and redundancy in the future.

 

[Oldman too]

SN 20 test up and coming.
https://www.universetoday.com/15517...ady-for-an-orbital-flight-in-may/#more-155174

First Starship orbital flight will be with Raptor 2 engines, as they are much more capable & reliable. 230 ton or ~500k lb thrust at sea level.

We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 21, 2022

 

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SN20 has Raptor 1 engines, it might see additional tests but it won't fly. SN24 and booster 7 are now likely candidates for the orbital flight. Booster 7 has been moved to the launch site.

 

[mfb]

Amazon bought 83 rocket launches for its Kuiper constellation. Probably at least $10 billion, the largest commercial launch deal ever.

18 Ariane 6 launches
12 to 27 New Glenn launches
38 Vulcan launches

Amazon previously bought 9 Atlas V launches.

No Falcon, no Starship - these would be cheaper and have more launch capacity, but apparently Amazon doesn't want to rely on a direct competitor.

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Busy times at Kennedy Space Center: The wet dress rehearsal for Artemis 1 got delayed, which then delayed Axiom-1 (now April 8). Any additional delay will likely also shift Crew-4 (April 19), as both missions use the same launch pad and Axiom-1 needs to leave the ISS to free the docking port for Crew-4.
That's three crew-rated capsules in preparation for launch at the same time, two of them will fly crew.

Edit: Artemis 1 WDR delayed more, no time estimate this time. We might see some shuffling.

Edit2: WDR now after Axiom-1

 

[anorlunda]

Army Corps of Engineers closes SpaceX Starbase permit application citing lack of information​

SpaceX can re-open the application simply by providing the information requested
https://www.theverge.com/2022/4/6/2...rship-army-corps-engineers-permit-application
IMO, Elon Musk and governments will never be friends. Some people suggested that SpaceX should go offshore. That may be wise.

 

[mfb]

They requested more information, SpaceX told them they didn't have that information yet, so the Army Corps halted the application until that information is available. Nothing surprising.

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2 hours 15 minutes until the launch of Axiom-1 with its crew of four, the first fully private mission to the ISS. They have a large range of experiments planned, mainly in the medical sector. Launch coverage

 

[sandy stone]

They requested more information, SpaceX told them they didn't have that information yet, so the Army Corps halted the application until that information is available. Nothing surprising.

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2 hours 15 minutes until the launch of Axiom-1 with its crew of four, the first fully private mission to the ISS. They have a large range of experiments planned, mainly in the medical sector. Launch coverage

I hate it when concern for the common good gets in the way of rich guys doing whatever they want.

 

[anorlunda]

There's a new 2 hour film released "Return To Space" about SpaceX and NASA astronauts. I saw it last night on Netflix.

I get the impression that Elon Musk is uncomfortable with his NASA partnership, and NASA is uncomfortable with SpaceX. But of course, he doesn't say that directly in the film.

 

[Arjan82]

2 hours 15 minutes until the launch of Axiom-1 with its crew of four, the first fully private mission to the ISS. They have a large range of experiments planned, mainly in the medical sector. Launch coverage

Just wondering: do they also recapture the second stage? Or is that left to burn in the atmosphere?

 

[sophiecentaur]

Just wondering: do they also recapture the second stage? Or is that left to burn in the atmosphere?

The first stage recovery seems an obvious thing to go for - a very expensive component of the flight, with vast energy capability and also, I would guess, some very complex control features. I wonder how much, in comparison, the second stage costs and if it justifies extra facilitates / payload to bring it back safely (it's almost orbital).

 

[mfb]

They looked into second stage recovery, but it would have needed too much redesign and reduced the payload too much. The second stage has been estimated to cost ~10 million, the largest part of the overall marginal launch cost to SpaceX. Boosters should be around 25-30 million, but they can be used 10+ times so the cost per launch is much lower. Fairings are ~6 million (both sides together), they are reused as well.

Starship will be fully reusable.Axiom-1 should dock with the ISS within half an hour. Livestream

 

[sophiecentaur]

They looked into second stage recovery, but it would have needed too much redesign and reduced the payload too much. The second stage has been estimated to cost ~10 million, the largest part of the overall marginal launch cost to SpaceX. Boosters should be around 25-30 million, but they can be used 10+ times so the cost per launch is much lower. Fairings are ~6 million (both sides together), they are reused as well.

Starship will be fully reusable.Axiom-1 should dock with the ISS within half an hour. Livestream

I am such a lazy hound dog* that my main space info comes from you and a few other PF experts. Between you, the wheat is separated from the chaff of space news and I keep up to date with the important stuff.
Thanks, all.

*That's a phrase that my headmaster used for me in 1962. He was not wrong as I've lived by my wits ever since! Most of my input is by diffusion.

 

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Axiom-1 reached the ISS.

A reuse milestone: NASA's science mission lead said he prefers reused Falcon 9 boosters over new ones.

And two more coming up:

• A reused Falcon 9 booster will launch two military satellites on Friday. The US military was the last customer requiring new boosters.
• RocketLab wants to catch their first stage in the next mission, planned for April 19. If successful it will be the third orbital rocket to recover parts of the launch system after the Space Shuttle and Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy. I'm not including Buran here as the recoverable part didn't really contribute to the launch. The mission is called "There And Back Again", when Twitter pointed out that "Catch Me If You Can" would be better RocketLab's CEO Peter Beck replied "you have just named the very next recovery mission after this one"

.

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NASA is still struggling with the Wet Dress Rehearsal. They have a valve problem that they can't fix on the launch pad, so they decided to do the WDR without fully fueling the upper stage. They'll simply skip the test that failed. The valve will be exchanged later, and so far it doesn't look like they want to repeat that test. NASA keeps repeating how it's a highly reliable system and low risk - but then how did it fail?

Starship is developed with the idea "test early, fail, improve the failing parts, test again". If a component fails they'll replace it and try again a few days later. If a vehicle blows up the next one will be on the launch pad a month later. Some explosions are expected.

NASA wanted to do the exact opposite with SLS. Develop everything for years to have extremely high redundancy, safety margins and so on, so everything will work on the first try. They were so certain that it will work that they considered skipping the Green Run for a while - the test that ended early because of an engine problem and had to be repeated (with extra delays from a valve problem). Now there is another valve problem.
The solid rocket boosters were originally certified to last one year after stacking. That was extended to one and a half years and now two years. It's unclear how much of that extension came from actual certainty that they are still good, and how much from necessity because the program faced delays. Even if Artemis 1 launches successfully in the next months it doesn't look like a very safe rocket. The default response to failing tests was a change of the tests, not a fix of the underlying problem. Combined with the endless delays and absurd costs I think it's save to say that this model doesn't work well.

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Edit: There was also the Pythom rocket test which had people run away from the dust/exhaust cloud.

 

[Oldman too]

Once again we're coming up on the Planetary Decadal Mission Concept Studies for the 2023-2032 period. Here's a link to some of the more interesting concepts being considered, I'm pleased to see a couple of them involve Ceres exploration.
https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/2632-3338/page/Planetary_Decadal_Mission_Concept_Studies

 

[TeethWhitener]

NASA keeps repeating how it's a highly reliable system and low risk - but then how did it fail?

They were so certain that it will work that they considered skipping the Green Run for a while - the test that ended early because of an engine problem and had to be repeated (with extra delays from a valve problem). Now there is another valve problem.

So basically it’s a repeat of the Challenger mismanagement?

 

[Oldman too]

So basically it’s a repeat of the Challenger mismanagement?

Maybe they are just developing bigger and better fault trees?

 

[nsaspook]

Edit: There was also the Pythom rocket test which had people run away from the dust/exhaust cloud.

OMG, I hope nobody gets killed before that rocket launches.

"Classic liquid rocket bipropellant composed of furfuryl alcohol and fuming nitric acid"

https://www3.epa.gov/region1/airquality/nox.html

Nitrogen Oxides are a family of poisonous, highly reactive gases. These gases form when fuel is burned at high temperatures. NOx pollution is emitted by automobiles, trucks and various non-road vehicles (e.g., construction equipment, boats, etc.) as well as industrial sources such as power plants, industrial boilers, cement kilns, and turbines. NOx often appears as a brownish gas.

 

[Oldman too]

OMG, I hope nobody gets killed before that rocket launches.
View attachment 299925
"Classic liquid rocket bipropellant composed of furfuryl alcohol and fuming nitric acid"

https://www3.epa.gov/region1/airquality/nox.html

Absolutely amazing! The ARS article says it all but let me quote from it, this is one of the co-founders speaking... "You have to work hard, but you do not have to be very smart," Tina Sjögren added.

 

[mfb]

Another gem from their update:

During our expeditions, we lost many friends to the elements, [...]
We didn't survive all our expeditions by luck only, but by rigorous risk preparedness.

Classic survivorship bias.

So basically it’s a repeat of the Challenger mismanagement?

It increasingly looks like it.
The third WDR attempt was also aborted, this time because of a hydrogen leak in the ground support infrastructure.
The WDR was meant as final check that everything is still working, not as part of R&D. If you find a new issue in every test then your rocket isn't ready to fly.

 

[anorlunda]

The WDR was meant as final check that everything is still working, not as part of R&D. If you find a new issue in every test then your rocket isn't ready to fly.

Well said. A wizard at probability and statistics could take each problem not discovered until on the launch pad and turn that into an estimate of how flawed the R&D process was.

I fear that the cynical view is valid. The first priority of NASA's manned space program is jobs, money and politics. A successful flight terminates some spending, rather than perpetuating it. The amazing part is that NASA's unmanned programs are so totally different. Thank goodness for that.

 

[Klystron]

...I fear that the cynical view is valid. The first priority of NASA's manned space program is jobs, money and politics. A successful flight terminates some spending, rather than perpetuating it. The amazing part is that NASA's unmanned programs are so totally different. ...

Very well said. Perhaps the laws and regulations anent using human research subjects causes more bloat compared to unmanned missions. Having worked at both types of mission facilities, the amount of spending associated with human flight crews compared with machines dwarfed the latter. Even offices and buildings appeared more elegant, compensation scales more extreme, and the politics more pervasive.

 

[Oldman too]

How did I miss this. https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/s...n-flagship-crew-capsule-executive-2022-03-28/

"March 28 (Reuters) - SpaceX has ended production of new Crew Dragon astronaut capsules, a company executive told Reuters, as Elon Musk's space transportation company heaps resources on its next-generation spaceship program."

 

[anorlunda]

SpaceX has ended production of new Crew Dragon astronaut capsules

Don't worry, they will have 4 of them. They can make more if needed.

 

[Oldman too]

Don't worry, they will have 4 of them. They can make more if needed.

I noticed that, also that they will continue making spare parts. I did also find the launch cycle statement very interesting, wondered for some time how launch cycles compared to aircraft cycles, not that the forces and stress are comparable but it did cross my mind.

"There's lifetime cycle issues, where once you start using it the third, fourth, fifth time, you start finding different things," said retired NASA astronaut and former SpaceX executive Garrett Reisman, who now consults for the company on human spaceflight matters.

 

[Klystron]

I noticed that, also that they will continue making spare parts. I did also find the launch cycle statement very interesting, wondered for some time how launch cycles compared to aircraft cycles, not that the forces and stress are comparable but it did cross my mind.

"There's lifetime cycle issues, where once you start using it the third, fourth, fifth time, you start finding different things," said retired NASA astronaut and former SpaceX executive Garrett Reisman, who now consults for the company on human spaceflight matters.

I recently read, perhaps here on PF, words to the effect that astronauts prefer to ride the second launch on the premise that the rocket worked successfully once and is still relatively new.