- #36
3rdHeaven
- 11
- 0
I was going by memory, you see how well that goes.
I realize the Carter Doomsday Argument is not absolute, but can be used as a estimator. No one knows how long we really have, one thing is certain, we don't have a whole lot of time because even if humans can survive another 2 million years, life on Earth will be a lot hotter as our sun approaches a red giant and collapse. Evolution might even appear to reverse as this happens before all the water evaporates.
The point I was trying to make and I should have taken the time to be more accurate instead of going by memory, is man has been around for 200,000 years. You would think by now we would have that advanced technology, but are no where near it. I'm sure given the opportunity to continue we will advance more, but if we really went by our past, it might not be that significant. An earlier poster used the technology advances we made in the past 200 years as an example of perhaps some major break through to happen in the next 200 years. I don't see that. Not the break through we would need for interstellar travel. I think we would need at least 10,000 more years. If we make it. That was my point I was trying to make. Thank you for taking me seriously enough to indulge me further! I'm glad I found this forum looks like a goldmine of information.
I realize the Carter Doomsday Argument is not absolute, but can be used as a estimator. No one knows how long we really have, one thing is certain, we don't have a whole lot of time because even if humans can survive another 2 million years, life on Earth will be a lot hotter as our sun approaches a red giant and collapse. Evolution might even appear to reverse as this happens before all the water evaporates.
The point I was trying to make and I should have taken the time to be more accurate instead of going by memory, is man has been around for 200,000 years. You would think by now we would have that advanced technology, but are no where near it. I'm sure given the opportunity to continue we will advance more, but if we really went by our past, it might not be that significant. An earlier poster used the technology advances we made in the past 200 years as an example of perhaps some major break through to happen in the next 200 years. I don't see that. Not the break through we would need for interstellar travel. I think we would need at least 10,000 more years. If we make it. That was my point I was trying to make. Thank you for taking me seriously enough to indulge me further! I'm glad I found this forum looks like a goldmine of information.